I’ll be honest with you. When I first heard about Bitcoin cycles, I thought someone was talking about exercise bikes for cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Turns out, I was spectacularly wrong, and what I discovered was far more fascinating than any stationary bicycle could ever be.

Bitcoin cycles are the predictable patterns that Bitcoin’s price and behaviour follow over time, and understanding them is like learning to read the tides before you go sailing. You wouldn’t set out to sea without checking the weather forecast, would you? Well, if you’re thinking about Bitcoin, understanding these cycles is your weather forecast. They’re not just important, they’re absolutely crucial for anyone who wants to make sense of this digital currency that’s been making headlines for over a decade now.

Why Bitcoin Cycles Matter More Than You Think#

Here’s the thing about Bitcoin cycles. They’re not some mystical fortune-telling nonsense cooked up by people in hoodies staring at computer screens. They’re actually based on real, programmed events built into Bitcoin’s very DNA. Think of it like the changing seasons, except instead of nature controlling the cycle, it’s mathematics and computer code. And unlike trying to predict British weather, which is frankly impossible, Bitcoin cycles follow a pattern that’s been remarkably consistent since the currency’s birth.

The Bitcoin market cycle affects everyone from massive investment firms to your neighbour who bought a fraction of a Bitcoin on a whim. It influences when people buy, when they sell, and when they hold on for dear life (there’s actually an acronym for that in crypto circles: HODL, but that’s another story). Understanding these cycles means you’re not flying blind in a world that can feel utterly bewildering.

What Bitcoin Cycles Are Used For (And What They’re Definitely Not)#

Let me paint you a picture. Bitcoin cycles are used by investors, traders, and analysts to understand where we might be in Bitcoin’s journey. Are we at the beginning of an exciting climb? Are we at a peak where caution is warranted? Or are we in one of those gloomy valleys where everything looks dire but might actually be a good time to pay attention?

People use Bitcoin cycles to make informed decisions about timing. Not perfect decisions, mind you, because nothing in finance is ever perfect, but better decisions than simply throwing darts at a board. Large investment companies study these cycles. Regular people like you and me study them. Even governments and financial institutions pay attention to them now.

But here’s what Bitcoin cycles are absolutely not used for. They’re not a crystal ball. They won’t tell you with certainty that Bitcoin will be worth exactly £47,532.17 on the 23rd of November next year. They’re not a get-rich-quick scheme, and anyone who tells you they can predict Bitcoin’s exact movements based on cycles alone is either deluded or trying to sell you something (probably both).

The Evolution of Bitcoin Cycles#

As of writing this blog (24th December 2025) The big question is did we hit the Cycle 5 High?

When Bitcoin first started, there weren’t really cycles to speak of. It was worth pennies, and only a handful of cryptography enthusiasts and libertarians cared about it. The first recorded Bitcoin transaction was someone buying two pizzas for 10,000 Bitcoin in 2010. Those pizzas would be worth hundreds of millions today, which must be somewhat difficult for that person to think about.

The first real Bitcoin cycle emerged around 2011 to 2012. Bitcoin climbed from about a dollar to around thirty dollars, then crashed back down. People who’d never heard of it suddenly had heard of it, then promptly forgot about it again when it crashed. This pattern of explosive growth followed by dramatic decline would become Bitcoin’s signature move.

The second major cycle ran from roughly 2012 to 2015. This is when the Bitcoin halving concept really started to show its influence. Bitcoin climbed to over a thousand dollars in late 2013, driven partly by interest from China and partly by people realising this wasn’t just going away. Then it crashed again, spending 2014 and early 2015 in what felt like a perpetual winter. Many declared Bitcoin dead. They were, as it turned out, premature.

The third cycle, from 2015 to 2018, was when Bitcoin truly entered public consciousness. It climbed from a few hundred dollars to nearly twenty thousand dollars by December 2017. Your hairdresser was talking about Bitcoin. Your accountant was asking you about Bitcoin. Everyone’s cousin was suddenly a cryptocurrency expert. Then, inevitably, it crashed again, losing about 80% of its value over 2018.

The fourth cycle, which began around 2018 and peaked in 2021, saw Bitcoin reach over sixty thousand dollars. This time, major companies were buying it. Tesla bought Bitcoin. El Salvador made it legal tender. It wasn’t just speculation anymore, it was becoming part of the financial establishment, albeit the rebellious teenager of that establishment.

Each cycle has been characterized by higher peaks and higher valleys than the one before. The first peak was thirty dollars, the second over a thousand, the third nearly twenty thousand, the fourth over sixty thousand. See the pattern? Each crash has also been less severe in percentage terms, though when you’re watching your investment drop by 50%, percentages feel like cold comfort.

Why Bitcoin Cycles Actually Happen#

Right, let’s get into the nitty-gritty, but I promise to keep it straightforward. Bitcoin cycles are primarily driven by an event called the Bitcoin halving, which happens approximately every four years. This isn’t approximate because Bitcoin is lazy about scheduling, it’s approximate because the halving occurs every 210,000 blocks mined, which works out to roughly four years given how the mining process works.

Here’s how it works, step by step. When Bitcoin was created, miners (people who use powerful computers to verify Bitcoin transactions and secure the network) received 50 new Bitcoin as a reward for each block they successfully mined. This happened roughly every ten minutes. That was a lot of new Bitcoin entering circulation.

Then, in 2012, the first Bitcoin halving occurred. Suddenly, miners only received 25 Bitcoin per block instead of 50. The supply of new Bitcoin entering the market was cut in half overnight. In 2016, it halved again to 12.5 Bitcoin. In 2020, it halved to 6.25 Bitcoin. The next halving, expected in 2024, will reduce it to 3.125 Bitcoin.

Why does this matter? Simple supply and demand. Imagine if suddenly the number of new houses being built in the UK was cut in half, but the number of people wanting to buy houses stayed the same or increased. House prices would likely rise, wouldn’t they? That’s essentially what happens with Bitcoin after each halving.

The typical Bitcoin market cycle follows a pattern. In the year or so before a halving, there’s usually anticipation and a gradual price increase. Then the halving happens. For a few months, not much changes dramatically. Then, historically, about 12 to 18 months after the halving, Bitcoin enters what’s called a bull market, where prices climb rapidly. This is when everyone gets excited, media coverage intensifies, and your nephew suddenly becomes a financial advisor.

Eventually, the price reaches a peak, often driven by a combination of genuine adoption and sheer speculation. Then comes the crash, the bear market, where prices fall dramatically. Panic selling occurs. Media declares Bitcoin dead (again). People who bought at the peak feel rather silly. This bear market typically lasts until the next halving cycle begins, and the whole thing starts again.

It’s worth noting that each cycle isn’t identical. External factors like regulatory changes, technological developments, global economic conditions, and major companies adopting or rejecting Bitcoin all play their part. But the underlying rhythm driven by the Bitcoin halving has been remarkably consistent.

What the Future Holds for Bitcoin Cycles#

Now, predicting the future is a mug’s game, but we can make some educated guesses based on what we know. The last Bitcoin halving was April 2024, which means if historical patterns hold, we are in (or at the end depending on your view) the latest bull market. But, and this is a big but, each cycle shows diminishing returns in percentage terms.

When Bitcoin went from one dollar to a thousand dollars, that was a 100,000% increase. When it went from a thousand to twenty thousand, that was “only” a 2,000% increase. Still phenomenal, but notably smaller in percentage terms. The pattern suggests future cycles might see smaller percentage gains, though potentially larger absolute gains simply because the starting price is higher.

There’s also the question of what happens when all Bitcoin has been mined. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin, that’s hardcoded into the system. We’re already past 19 million, and the last Bitcoin won’t be mined until around 2140. As we approach that limit, and as halvings continue to reduce new supply to tiny amounts, the dynamics might change significantly.

Some experts believe Bitcoin cycles will become less pronounced over time as the market matures and Bitcoin becomes more integrated into traditional finance. Others think the cycles will persist but with less volatility. A few believe we’ll see entirely new patterns emerge. Honestly? Nobody knows for certain, and anyone who claims they do is having you on.

Bringing It All Together#

So, what have we learned about Bitcoin cycles? They’re the predictable patterns in Bitcoin’s price and behaviour, primarily driven by the Bitcoin halving event that occurs every four years. These cycles have been remarkably consistent since Bitcoin’s creation, following a pattern of anticipation, halving, bull market, peak, and bear market.

Understanding the Bitcoin market cycle isn’t about getting rich quick. It’s about understanding the rhythm of this new technology, recognizing where we might be in the journey, and making informed decisions rather than emotional ones. It’s about seeing Bitcoin not as magic internet money that only goes up, but as a complex system with its own internal logic and patterns.

We’ve seen four major cycles so far (5 if you included the one we are currently in/ending), each building on the last, each reaching higher peaks and establishing higher floors. The cycles are driven by mathematics and scarcity, but influenced by human behaviour, technological development, regulatory changes, and broader economic conditions. They’re predictable in their general structure but unpredictable in their specific details.

Looking forward, Bitcoin cycles will likely continue, though perhaps with diminishing volatility as the market matures. The fundamental mechanism, the halving, will keep occurring until the last Bitcoin is mined over a century from now. What happens then is anyone’s guess, but that’s a problem for our great-great-grandchildren to worry about.

The key takeaway is this: Bitcoin cycles are real, they’re based on solid technological foundations, and understanding them gives you a framework for making sense of Bitcoin’s often bewildering behaviour. But they’re not a guarantee, not a crystal ball, and definitely not a substitute for careful thinking and prudent risk management.

Whether you’re invested in Bitcoin, thinking about it, or just trying to understand what all the fuss is about, knowing about Bitcoin cycles helps you separate signal from noise. And in a world full of noise, especially around cryptocurrency, that’s worth quite a lot.

Just remember, those pizzas cost 10,000 Bitcoin. Never forget the pizzas.

Walter